Game Time Decision

When every move you make is dictated by weather, what do you do when the models and actual conditions disagree? We check all the weather models available to us through Predict Wind, NOAA coastal forecasts, tropical activity, actual conditions reported by various weather stations, wave heights, rain and CAPE (convective available potential energy – an indication of the likelihood of thunderstorms). Most of the time, all of that helps us make our go/no go call. Sometimes though, it leaves us perplexed, as it did this time. It’s not uncommon for a couple of the models to disagree, and when that happens, we look at conditions over the past few hours vs. forecast and look for the models that most closely align.

This time, none of the models reflected reality. There was a big system sitting out in the Gulf Stream between Hatteras and Onslow Bay, just north of Cape Fear, and it was having a strong impact on conditions. We finally decided to leave in the early hours of Sunday morning and let things sort themselves somewhat.

But as we talked it through, we realized an oh-dark-thirty departure wasn’t going to be easy. We were in a REALLY tight spot on the dock, with boats a few feet in front of and behind us, and there’s a pretty strong current that runs through the area. If we left that early, we’d have no dock hands to help. With this in mind, we made the last minute decision to go – worst case we could anchor by Bald Head if things looked ugly.

Fortunately we were already mostly prepped for departure, but there was still quite a bit to do, and we had to be off the dock before 1800 when the dock hands left for the day, which meant we had less than an hour. Even though we do this regularly, I created a checklist a while back that we go through every time. It helps us make sure that all the important things get done before we go, and it’s really helpful when we’re in a rush.

Once the list was complete, the dock hand came down and helped us off. The wind blew us off the dock, which helped, but without someone to pull our bow in as we reversed out, we wouldn’t have made it. As it was, we had mere inches between us and the catamaran behind us.

I got all the fenders and lines put away and got out our foulies (foul weather gear) since Windara can be quite a wet boat when the waves are up. We came out of the ICW into the Cape Fear River and were treated to a beautiful sunset. As we got our first look at the inlet, everything seemed pretty settled. Even so, I was unreasonably nervous about the passage.

Why? A combination of things, I suppose. It’s worth saying that nothing in the forecasts indicated conditions would be any worse than what we’ve encountered on past trips and conditions had been settling all day – otherwise we wouldn’t have made the call to go. I think the relatively last-minute “go time” decision, combined with uncertainty in the weather, plus having read about a few boats grounding offshore in the last week all piled on to cause an irrational level of stress. I’ve learned over the past few years though to acknowledge it, verbalize it, and work through it as best I can.

And all those fears/worries/what have you turned out to be totally unfounded. We raised the sail in the Bald Head anchorage area and headed out to sea, riding a gentle swell and 10-15kts of breeze, which quickly faded out with the coming dark. We ghosted along at 2-3kts of boat speed, and after I went below to try to get some rest, Chris had a pod of dolphins that kept coming to play. It was so quiet that he could hear them talking to each other.

I barely slept, but I must have nodded off because I woke with a jolt and threw on my gear at 2am after one of those dreams that you can’t tell if they’re real or not… I could have sworn Chris came down to wake me up, but apparently not, although it was good timing for me to take over. I struggled to stay awake, but there were a few buoys along our course that I needed to keep an eye out for, which was enough to keep me focused. As the sun rose, I could still see that big system sitting out over the Gulf Stream, but conditions on our side were perfect.

When Chris took back the watch, I made breakfast then crashed hard for a couple hours. As the day progressed, it got warm enough that we could shed layers and ditch the deck boots. A couple hours out from Charleston, the wind died completely and we ended up motoring the last 15 or so miles. Even so, we were thankful to have had such a perfect sail.

Since we missed slack tide, we decided to anchor up off the Yorktown (along with 13 other boats!) to wait. We thought about heading in on the evening slack, but it was well after dark, we were tired, and we agreed that tomorrow is another day.

It looks like we’re going to have some beautiful weather this week, and we’ve decided to stay here two weeks – so that means we’ll have a weekend to do some sightseeing and run errands and take Jack to his vet. We’ll also finally get to celebrate Chris’s birthday (we were on passage for the actual day and decided Charleston would be a better place than Southport to celebrate). Looking forward to seeing what else our time here brings!